News columnist Bill Madden breaks down the National League championship series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants, which opens Saturday night at Citizens Bank Park when aces Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum face off.
STRENGTHS
Giants: Probably the best four-deep rotation of any team in the playoffs with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and rookie Madison Bumgarner (combined 700 strikeouts in 740 innings). Giants pitching ranked 1st in NL in ERA and strikeouts. In September, Giants had a 1.78 ERA and six shutouts, while in the NLDS, their pitchers held the Braves to a .175 average and nine runs and only six extra base hits in the four games. Rookie catcher Buster Posey was the catalyst to their late-season run to NL West title, hitting .305 and slugging .505 in his 75 starts behind the plate. Closer Brian Wilson was among NL elite with a 1.81 ERA, 93 strikeouts in 742/3 innings, while saving 48 games and blowing only five.
Phillies: Countering the Giants pitching, the Phillies "H2O" big three starters Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels were virtually unbeatable down the stretch - going a combined 13-1 in September. Phillies are 19-2 since Sept. 1 in games started by Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels - including their sweep of the Reds in the NLDS. The Phillies ranked third in NL in runs and fifth in homers. Ryan Howard/Jayson Werth middle-of-the-order tandem combined for 58 homers and 193 RBI.
WEAKNESSES
Giants: GM Brian Sabean did a nice job in cobbling together an offense with his low cost acquisitions of Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross, but there's still no getting around the fact the Giants ranked 9th in the NL in runs and on-base percentage – or that their paltry 55 stolen bases tied for last. Biggest disappointment was third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who fell from 25 HR/90 RBI a year ago to 13/63.
Phillies: Jimmy Rollins' (below) chronic injuries have severely curtailed his effectiveness as a leadoff hitter (.243). Phillies' set-up relief - Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin, J.C. Romero – for closer Brad Lidge is just ordinary as they tried to stay away from it in the division series with complete-game efforts by Halladay and Hamels. There's not a whole lot on the bench - faded vets Mike Sweeney and Greg Dobbs - to scare anyone. In that respect, they really miss Matt Stairs.
KEY TO SERIES
Who out-pitches whom? Although the Phillies' Shane Victorino insisted the Phils' batters will be heard from, this figures to be a very low-scoring series with some potentially electric pitching performances on both sides, beginning with Halladay-Lincecum in Game 1. A somewhat ominous sign for the Phillies was the fact that the Giants hit .290 against their big three starters and .256 against the rest of the league. Nevertheless, the Giants' lineup is a whole lot less formidable than the Reds' which the Phillies just dominated.
THE PICK: Phillies in five
Man-for-man, the Phillies are a vastly superior team but as Connie Mack said: "Pitching is 90% of the game" and on that front the Giants match up pretty evenly and might even have an edge. Where the Phillies have an edge is experience.
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