Boxing - In William Shakespeare's Sonnet 46, literature's greatest dramatist wrote about an internal conflict between one's eyes and heart in vying for a woman's image and affections.
"Mine eye and heart are at a mortal war
How to divide the conquest of thy sight . . . ."
Adapted to boxing, the eyes have seen Antonio Margarito (38-6) of Mexico in peak shape - a much larger boxer who is training with zeal for the biggest fight of his life. The heart, however, gives the sentimental edge to the (much smaller) pound-for-pound king: Manny "Pacman" Pacquiao (51-3-2) of the Philippines.
Photos: Boxing's Ringcard Girls
Casinos and sports gamblers show no such conflict. Betting odds are widening in favor of the "Pacman" at -600 (at betus.com), where a $600 wager for the Filipino congressman yields but a $100 in winnings. Margarito now stands at +400, where a $100 bet yields back $400 if the (larger) fighter can pull off the upset.
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Last month, Pacquiao stood at -525, while Margarito was pegged at around +325.
Margarito Zeal >
Let's explore whether or not the eyes and the heart should have a conflict.
Within the past few weeks, the Mexican seems to have out-trained his Filipino counterpart. Margarito runs up a hill for an hour, compared to 45 minutes for Pacquiao. The "Tijuana Tornado" has trained harder than ever before, and his regimen lasts for six days a week.
On the other hand, Pacquiao has skipped a few morning sessions while missing out on Sunday rest due to back-and-forth travel between Baguio City (where he trains) and Manila. Additionally, Margarito has been training longer than Pacquiao, as the latter has had to attend to congressional duties.
For the past few weeks, Margarito has sparred 10 rounds per day every other day. Pacquiao has recently just begun sparring about 9 rounds during sparring days, and at times looked unimpressive in the eyes of his long-time trainer Freddie Roach.
For several weeks now, Robert Garcia, Margarito's trainer, has toughened up the Mexican by hitting him with a baton stick. Pacquiao has recently started being hit with a ratan stick the past few days.
The 5'11" Mexican posseses a six-inch reach advantage and will weigh around 160 lbs (middleweight) on fight night. At Cowboys Stadium, most of the cheering fans are likely to be Hispanic (and thus, pro-Margarito). The "Pacman" stands at 5'6.5" and will weigh around 150 lbs.
Widening Odds >
The widening betting odds disclose one of two things.
Top Rank's Bob Arum - a slick salesman - may have successfully hypnotized the sports world into believing that this will actually be a competitive fight, which generates more revenue and ticket sales. But that casinos and gamblers are not fooled with the sales pitch, and expect the speedy Pacquiao to steamroll over the slower Antonio Margarito.
Or secondly: Pacquiao is attracting sentimental Filipino bettors who expect him to collect a record-breaking eighth title belt in as many weight classes.
Popularity usually skews betting odds. Perhaps the magnitude of that skew is in direct proportion to the level of popularity. In his homeland, Manny Pacquiao is a Herculean figure with a cult-like following. Wagers no longer become objective, and become a means by which one supports his idol.
Are - 600 and +400 justified?
"Popeye" and "Brutus" will decide on November 13.
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